Atalanta Braves are through to the 2021 MLB World Series Playoffs for the very first time in their history after triumph in the National League pennant since 1999.
Despite being rated fourth-likeliest pennant winner by the NL oddsmakers, ahead of the wild-card St. Louis Cardinals but behind the wild-card Los Angeles Dodgers, the team finished off by Atalanta on Saturday night.
ESPN are reporting that just two of their 36 potential prognosticators had tipped the Braves to win the National League.
In a stunning fashion, Braves put on a sensational performance to be crowned winners after a classic performance.
For example, the American League champion Houston Astros have averaged 6.7 runs per game this postseason, far more than any other club. If you were to write a “how they got here” story about Houston, that’s an obvious place to start.
The Braves, on the other hand, have no eye-jabbing statistical indicators that serve as neon signposts pointing their way to the World Series.
They haven’t really led the playoff teams in anything, at least on the traditional stats ledger.
But let’s focus on one number where they can’t be touched: 100, their probability percentage for winning the flag they’ve just won.
Throughout the postseason, I’ve been running probabilities through my simulator after posting the previous night’s results and logging them to see the daily changes. The first run, which was prior to the start of the playoffs, gave the Braves a 17% shot at winning the pennant.